Risk prediction model of portal vein thrombosis in cirrhosis:a Meta-analysis

PU Zaichun; JIA Ping; LIU Juan; SU Yushuang; GUO Danyang; WANG Li; ZHANG Qin

doi:10.12102/j.issn.2095-8668.2024.16.004

Abstract：Objective:To conduct a Meta-analysis of risk prediction models for portal vein thrombosis(PVT)in liver cirrhosis.Methods:A computerized search was conducted in databases such as CNKI,VIP,WanFang Database,CBM,Web of Science,the Cochrane Library,PubMed,Scopus,and EMbase for studies on risk prediction models for portal vein thrombosis in liver cirrhosis,from the inception of the databases to November 21,2023.Two researchers independently conducted data retrieval and material extraction,used the PROBAST to evaluate the quality of the literature,and performed Meta-analysis using RevMan 5.4 and MedCalc software.Results:A total of 15 articles were included,involving 10 077 patients,with the prevalence of PVT ranging from 6.0％to 50.0％;the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the 15 risk prediction models was between 0.667 and 0.949.Meta-analysis results showed that elevated D-dimer levels(OR=1.49,95％CI 1.30-1.70,P＜0.001),history of endoscopic treatment(OR=18.91,95％CI 11.31-31.59,P＜0.001),degree of esophageal and gastric varices(OR=2.26,95％CI 1.75-2.92,P＜0.001),widening of the main portal vein diameter(OR=1.38,95％CI 1.29-1.48,P＜0.001),history of splenectomy(OR=5.51,95％CI 4.26-7.13,P＜0.001),and prolonged prothrombin time(OR=1.21,95％CI 1.12-1.31,P＜0.001)are predictors of PVT.Conclusion:Elevated D-dimer levels,history of endoscopic treatment,degree of esophageal and gastric varices,widening of the main portal vein diameter,history of splenectomy,and prolonged prothrombin time are effective predictors for the formation of PVT;further optimization is still needed in the future from the aspects of model construction,model validation,and result reporting.