Construction and validation of a nomogram prediction model for the risk of bowel preparation failure in inpatients colonoscopy examination
LIU Jianying
JIN Caiyun
LAI Lingcui
LU Xuefeng
Abstract：Objective:To construct a risk prediction model for bowel preparation failure in inpatients colonoscopy examination and verify its prediction effect.Methods:A total of 491 inpatients who underwent colonoscopy or colonoscopy surgery in a tertiary hospital in Xiamen from February to August 2023 were selected as the survey subjects.All samples were randomly divided into the modeling group(343 cases)and the validation group(148 cases)in a ratio of 7:3.Lasso regression was used to screen risk predictors.Logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for intestinal failure and establish a nomogram prediction model.The prediction effect of the model was evaluated through Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC)curve analysis and F1 score,and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to evaluate the model's fit.Results:Logistic regression analysis showed that calcium channel blockers,morning examination,constipation,first colonoscopy,age ≥75 years,and occasional walking were independent risk factors for bowel preparation failure.Including the above variables into the model,the area under the curve(AUC)of the modeling group was 0.725(95％CI 0.664-0.787,P＜0.001),the sensitivity was 0.637,the specificity was 0.722,the accuracy rate was 74.64％,the F1 score was 0.843,and Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that X2=8.81,P=0.267.The AUC of the validation group was 0.737(95％CI 0.644-0.830,P＜0.001),the sensitivity was 0.795,the specificity was 0.624,the accuracy rate was 77.03％,and the F1 score was 0.856,and Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that x2=6.25,P=0.400.Conclusions:The constructed risk nomogram prediction model for bowel preparation failure can provide a reference for the early identification of patients at high risk of bowel preparation failure and the development of targeted bowel preparation intensive programs.
Keywords：inpatientscolonoscopybowel preparationpredictive modelrisk factorsnursing
Publication Date：2024-07-15
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：7( 2343-2349 )