Construction and validation of a predictive model for Postoperative Recurrence of Ureteral Calculi
Jiao Shoukuo
Zhu Zhenyan
Deng Haibo
Chen Wu
Abstract：Objective To establish and validate a nomogram model for predicting postoperative recurrence based on the independent factors associated with the recurrence risk of ureteral calculi after surgery.Methods A total of 229 patients with ureteral calculi who underwent ureteroscopic lithotripsy in Suzhou Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine Hospital from January 2022 to January 2025 were retrospectively enrolled.The patients were randomly divided into the train-ing set(n=160)and validation set(n=69)at a ratio of 7:3.According to the recurrence status within 1 year after surgery,the patients in the training set were further categorized into the recurrence group(n=59)and non-recurrence group(n=101).Uni-variate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the independent influencing factors for postop-erative recurrence of ureteral calculi.The predictive efficacy,calibration degree,and clinical utility of the nomogram model were evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve(AUC),calibration curves,and deci-sion curve analysis(DCA).Results Among the 229 patients with ureteral calculi,82 cases experienced postoperative recur-rence,with a recurrence rate of 35.81%.Multivariate Logistic regression analysis revealed that ureteral obstruction,postoper-ative residual calculi,maximum stone diameter,number of calculi,and impacted calculi were independent risk factors for postoperative recurrence of ureteral calculi(P<0.05).The results of model performance evaluation indicated that the model had good consistency(χ2=4.678,2.810;P=0.581,0.786),diagnostic efficacy(AUC=0.922,0.919),and clinical net benefit in both the training set and validation set.Conclusion The nomogram predictive model for postoperative recurrence of ure-teral calculi,which is established based on clinical features including ureteral obstruction,postoperative residual calculi,maximum stone diameter,number of calculi,and impacted calculi,exhibits favorable predictive efficacy and clinical applica-tion value.
Keywords：ureteral calculipostoperative recurrencepredictive modelvalidation
Publication Date：2025-12-28
Online Publishing Date：2026-03-11(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：9( 371-379 )