Nomogram prediction model of urinary tract infection after ureterostomy in middle-aged and elderly people
Li Xiaojiao
Qu Xiaoling
Zhao Leyan
Abstract：Objective:To establish a Nomogram prediction model of urinary tract infection(UTI)after ureteros-tomy in middle-aged and elderly people,and to provide guidance on preventive measures and management strategies.Methods:The study included 187 middle-aged and elderly patients with ureterostomy from January 2020 to May 2022.Patients were divided into infected group(56 cases)and uninfected group(131 cases)according to postopera-tive infection.Lasso-Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the independent influencing factors of urinary tract infection after ureterostomy in middle-aged and elderly people,and a Nomogram prediction model was construct-ed.The predictive efficacy and clinical application potential of Nomogram model were verified by ROC curve and cali-bration curve.Results:In 186 middle-aged and elderly patients with ureterostomy,the incidence of postoperative in-fection was 29.95％(56/187).Age,antibiotic use,replacement time of ostomy bag,poor urine drainage,complica-tions around ostomy and basic diseases were related to infection(P<0.05).The age,antibiotic use,replacement time of ostomy bag,poor urine drainage,complications around ostomy and basic diseases of the observation group were significantly higher than those in the control group(P<0.05).There was no significant difference in sex,operation time,smoking history,previous operation history,postoperative pain[visual analogue scale(VAS)]or intraoperative body temperature between the two groups(P>0.05).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that age,anti-biotic use,replacement time of stoma,poor urine drainage,complications around stoma and basic diseases were inde-pendent risk factors for urinary tract infection after ureterostomy in middle-aged and elderly people(P<0.05).ROC curve analysis showed that the(area under the curve,AUC)values of age,antibiotic use,replacement time of osto-my bag,poor urine drainage,complications around ostomy and basic diseases in Nomogram prediction model were all>0.600,which showed that the model has good prediction efficiency.Conclusion:Age,antibiotic use,change frequency of ostomy bag,urinary drainage obstuction,stoma-related complications,and comorbidities are indepen-dent risk factors of urinary tract infection after ureterostomy in middle-aged and elderly people.Nomogram prediction model based on these six influencing factors has good prediction effect.
Keywords：urinary tract infectioninfluencing factorsNomogram prediction modelprevention and control mecha-nism
Publication Date：2024-10-05
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 318-323 )