Study on the disease burden of polycystic ovary syndrome in women worldwide and in China from 1990 to 2021 and ten-year trend forecast

XI Rui; GUO Dongxia; FENG Kai; ZHANG Dongfang; ZHANG Qiang; YANG Xueli; LI Tongmin

doi:10.11958/20251554

Abstract：Objective To analyze the trends in incidence,prevalence and Disability-Adjusted Life Years(DALYs)associated with polycystic ovary syndrome(PCOS)in women globally and in China from 1990 to 2021,as well as to predict the changes from 2022 to 2031.Methods The data is sourced from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD 2021)database,which provided information on the burden of PCOS globally and in China from 1990 to 2021.Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to compute the annual percentage changes along with the 95%confidence intervals(95%CI)for age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR),age-standardized prevalence rate(ASPR)and age-standardized DALYs rate(ASDR)to assess the trends over time.The burden of PCOS in China and globally from 2022 to 2031 was predicted using the Nordpred package in R language.Results In 2021,the ASIR of PCOS in China was 58.61(95%UI:41.19-82.36)per 100 000,while the ASPR was 1544.17(95%UI:1081.33-2169.82)per 100 000,and the ASDR was 13.34(95%UI:5.88-27.55)per 100 000,which is slightly below the global average.From 1990 to 2021,the annual percentage changes in ASIR,ASPR and ASDR for PCOS in women globally were 0.80%(95%CI:0.79%-0.81%),0.81%(95%CI:0.80%-0.82%)and 0.79%(95%CI:0.78%-0.80%),respectively.In contrast,these corresponding annual percentage changes in China were higher,at 2.01%(95%CI:1.99%-2.04%),2.01%(95%CI:1.99%-2.03%)and 2.04%(95%CI:2.02%-2.06%).It is predicted that by 2031,the burden of PCOS in women globally and in China will continue to rise.Conclusion This study indicates that the burden of PCOS in China between 1990 and 2021 is slightly lower than the global average,but the growth rate is faster.It is anticipated that from 2022 to 2031,the incidence,prevalence and DALYs rates of PCOS in China will continue to rise.