Construction of a Risk Prediction Model for Early Miscarriage after IVF-ET in Infertile Patients with Ovarian Endometriomas

ZHOU Yao; YANG Xiaoliang; CHEN Ying

doi:10.16458/j.cnki.1007-0893.2025.22.005

Abstract：Objective To analyze the influencing factors of early miscarriage after in vitro fertilization-embryo transfer(IVF-ET)in infertile patients with ovarian endometriomas(OEM)and to construct a risk prediction model.Methods The clinical data of 142 infertile patients with OEM who were treated at Luoyang Central Hospital from January 2022 to February 2025 were retrospectively analyzed.All patients successfully conceived after IVF-ET and were divided into an occurrence group(20 cases)and a non-occurrence group(122 cases)based on whether early miscarriage occurred.The clinical data of the two groups were compared to analyze the influencing factors of early miscarriage after IVF-ET.On this basis,a risk prediction model was constructed and its predictive efficacy was evaluated.Results There were statistically significant differences in pre-assisted reproductive technology body mass index(BMI),proportion of operations different uterine cavity histories,basal estradiol level,and β-human chorionic gonadotropin(β-HCG)level 14 days after embryo transfer between the two groups(P<0.05).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that pre-assisted reproductive technology BMI<18.5 kg·m-2,pre-assisted reproductive technology BMI>24.0 kg·m-2,history of uterine cavity operation>1 time,and decreased β-HCG level 14 days after embryo transfer were risk factors for early miscarriage after IVF-ET in infertile patients with OEM(P<0.05).Based on the above indicators,a risk prediction model for early miscarriage after IVF-ET in infertile patients with OEM was constructed.The calibration curve indicated that the model had good discrimination,and the area under the curve(AUC)was 0.918,95%CI:0.869-0.966.Conclusion Pre-assisted reproductive technology BMI<18.5 kg·m-2,pre-assisted reproductive technology BMI>24.0 kg·m-2,history of uterine cavity operation>1 time,and decreased β-HCG level 14 days after embryo transfer are risk factors for early miscarriage after IVF-ET in infertile patients with OEM.The nomogram model constructed based on these factors has high value in predicting early miscarriage after IVF-ET in infertile patients with OEM.