Construction of a Nomogram Prediction Model for Early Spontaneous Abortion in Patients with Recurrent Spontaneous Abortion

XIE Mengxin; LI Shuping; ZHANG Jiaying

doi:10.16458/j.cnki.1007-0893.2025.21.004

Abstract：Objective To analyze the risk factors for early spontaneous abortion in patients with recurrent miscarriage(RSA)and construct a predictive model.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of 129 patients with RSA in Changzhou Hospital Affiliated to Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine from October 2023 to October 2024.They were divided into an early abortion group(103 cases)and a continued pregnancy group(26 cases)based on whether spontaneous abortion occurred before 12 weeks.The clinical data of the two groups of patients were compared.Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses were used to analyze the risk factors of early spontaneous abortion in RSA patients and a predictive model was constructed.Results Univariate analysis showed that comparisons of positive rates of embryonic chromosomes,thyroid stimulating hormone(TSH),free triiodothyronine(FT3),maximum aggregation rate of adenosine diphosphate(ADP),protein C(PC),fibrinogen(FIB),and antinuclear antibody(ANA)between the early miscarriage group and the continued pregnancy group.The differences were all statistically significant(P<0.05).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that TSH(OR=0.60,95%CI:0.37-0.96,P=0.03),ADP(OR=0.96,95%CI:0.93-0.99,P=0.01),PC(OR=1.03,95%CI:1.00-1.05,P=0.03),FIB(OR=1.68,95%CI:1.03-2.76,P=0.04)and ANA(OR=0.23,95%CI:0.07-0.74,P=0.01)are risk factors for early spontaneous abortion in RSA patients;Based on this,the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve(AUC)of the nomogram model constructed was 0.758,the sensitivity was 0.806,and the specificity was 0.750.Conclusion TSH,ADP,PC,FIB,and ANA are risk factors for early spontaneous abortion in RSA patients.The nomogram model constructed based on these factors has certain predictive value for early spontaneous abortion in RSA and is helpful for timely intervention by medical staff.