Analysis and Prediction of Colorectal Cancer Incidence in a Zhuhai District from 2010 to 2023
YANG Longyu
ZHANG Yangzhou
MO Xiaoying
Abstract：Objective To analyze and predict the incidence and trend of of colorectal cancer in a district of Zhuhai by using the combined method of Joinpoint linear regression and grey model GM(1,1),so as to provide reference for the prevention and treatment of colorectal cancer.Methods Using the colorectal cancer registration data of registered residents in a district of Zhuhai from 2010 to 2023,the incidence rates and their changing trends among populations of different genders and age groups were analyzed by Joinpoint linear regression,and calculate average annual percent change(AAPC),and grey model GM(1,1)was used to predict Incidence of in the short term.Results The crude incidence of colorectal cancer rised from 21.30/105 in 2010 to 45.95/105 in 2023 with the average incidence of 32.20/105.The incidence was on the rapid increase with the AAPC of 6.03%(P<0.001).The average annual crude incidence of males(37.28/105)was higher than that of females(27.16/105),and the difference was statistically significant(χ2=47.91,P<0.001).The Joinpoint analysis showed that the annual changes in crude incidence in the 35-64 years old group and the≥65 years old group showed an upward trend,with AAPC of 5.10%and 2.95%,respectively.Grey model GM(1,1)predicted that the crude incidence of colorectal cancer in the entire population and the 34-64 years old group showed an upward trend during 2024-2028.Conclusion The crude incidence of colorectal cancer in a district of Zhuhai have continued to increase.It is necessary to make males and the middle-aged and elderly as the for target populations,promote the colorectal cancer screening program,and improve the rate of early diagnosis and early treatment.Meanwhile,it should carry out the publicity campaign of national healthy lifestyle among people over 35 years,and reduce the exposure of colorectal cancer risk factors.
Keywords：Colorectal cancerMortalityJoinpoint analysisGrey prediction model
Publication Date：2025-07-15
Online Publishing Date：2025-10-24(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 5-10 )