Electricity consumption estimation for specific transformer user based on piecewise linear model
YANG Yu-qi
Abstract：In order to solve the problem of power consumption management for special transformer users,a piecewise linear model was proposed to forecast the monthly average electricity consumption ratio data of special transformer users and to realize the goal of saving the energy consumption. With the N point length data segmentation, the piecewise linear model was updated and generated, and the average electricity consumption ratio data for the next month were estimated. When the segmentation point length N was from 4 to 8,the forecast accuracy difference of piecewise linear model was analyzed and discussed. The actual power consumption data for a special transformer user from 2015 onwards were forecasted and analyzed, and the error between the forecast values and actual data was compared and verified. The results show that when the optimal modeling point length N is 6,the proposed model has the minimum average prediction error.
Keywords：piecewise linear modelelectricity consumptionforecastpower managementenergy savingregression estimationparameter selection
Publication Date：2018-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 121-125 )