Forecasting for urban prospective spatial load based on saturated load density
ZHANG Ming-li
SONG Zhuo-ran
LIANG Yi
SHI Zhe
YE Peng
Abstract：Aiming at the power grid planning problem in the medium and long term development of cities, a forecasting method for urban prospective spatial load based on saturated load density was proposed. Based on the rough set and cellular automata theory, the dynamic change process of land use with different types in the cities was simulated, and the future type and area change of land use in the planning area were predicted according to the land conversion rules of different land use types. Based on the logistic saturated load forecasting model, the saturated load density curve of different land use types was predicted. According to the saturated load density curves and the area of different land use types, the urban prospective spatial load distribution was forecasted, and the validity of the proposed method was verified with examples, which could provided a theoretical reference for further research of urban spatial load forecasting.
Keywords：load densityurban power gridspatial load forecastingcurve modelland use planningrough setcellular automataland type
Publication Date：2018-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：7( 12-18 )