Analysis of the Disease Burden of Spinal Cord Injury in China from 1990 to 2021 and Trend Forecast
Wei Yongcun
Xie Yanchun
Xuan Anwu
Wang Zening
Lian Yi
Yu Hailong
Abstract：Objective To analyze the characteristics of the disease burden of spinal cord injury(SCI)in China and provide a scientific basis for the development of prevention measures and the establishment of a treatment system.Methods Using the global burden of disease 2021(GBD 2021)database,we analyzed the incidence and prevalence of spinal cord injury in China from 1990 to 2021.The Joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze the trends in SCI incidence and prevalence.Additionally,the Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model was used to forecast the changes in standardized rates from 2022 to 2035.Results From 1990 to 2021,the age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR)and prevalence rate(ASPR)of spinal cord injury in China showed no significant changes,with average annual percentage changes of-0.02％[95％CI(-0.50％to 0.47％)]and 0.09％[95％CI(-0.12％to 0.29％)],respectively.The number of new cases and existing cases increased by 43.27％and 63.27％,respectively.The age distribution of incidence and prevalence showed a trend towards aging.The disease burden of spinal cord injury was higher in males than in females.It is projected that the burden of spinal cord injury in China will decrease by 2035.Conclusion The incidence and prevalence of spinal cord injury in China are increasing year by year,which is an important public health issue that cannot be ignored.Targeted preventive measures and treatment systems should be developed for the elderly and male populations.
Keywords：spinal cord injuryepidemiologyagegenderforecast
Publication Date：2025-09-25
Online Publishing Date：2025-10-24(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 795-799 )