Related factors of chylothorax and construction of prediction model in children with congenital heart disease after thoracotomy

CAO Yanan

Abstract：Objective:To explore the related factors of chylothorax and construct the prediction model in children with congenital heart disease after thoracotomy.Methods:A total of 84 children with congenital heart disease undergo-ing thoracotomy in hospital were enrolled as the research objects between January 2019 and April 2021.According to presence or absence of postoperative chylothorax,they were divided into chylothorax group(n=1 6)and control group(n=18).The clinical data of children in the two groups were compared.The risk factors of postoperative chylothorax were analyzed by multivariate Logistic regression analysis,and the prediction model was constructed.Results:The pro-portions of cases with age ≤ 1 year,body weight ≤10 kg,pulmonary hypertension and cyanotic heart disease in chylo-thorax group were higher than those in control group(P＜0.05).Age ≤ 1 year,body weight ≤ 10 kg,pulmonary hy-pertension and cyanotic heart disease were risk factors of chylothorax(P＜0.05).The risk factors were included in lo-gistic regression analysis to construct the predictive model for postoperative chylothorax:P=1/[1+e(-0.949+0.537 × age+0.685 × body weight+0.821 × pulmonary hypertension+0.747 × disease types)].ROC curves analysis showed that AUC and SE values of the model for predicting chylothorax were 0.768 and 0.071,respectively.Conclusion:Low age and body weight,pulmonary hypertension and cyanotic heart disease are risk factors of chylothorax in children with congenital heart disease after thoracotomy.The prediction model based on risk factors has predictive value for postoper-ative chylothorax.