Construction and validation of the prediction model for intraoperative hypotension in cesarean section parturient

LI Juanwen; ZHANG Wei; JING Ziye; SUN Huijun; TIAN Bin; LI Mengnan

doi:10.12102/j.issn.1009-6493.2026.04.017

Abstract：Objective:To construct the prediction model for intraoperative hypotension in cesarean section parturient,and to verify the predictive effect of the model.Methods:A total of 245 pregnant women who underwent elective cesarean section in a tertiary grade A hospital in Shanxi province from December 2022 to December 2023 were selected as the research subjects.The parturient were divided into the normal blood pressure group and the hypotension group based on whether they experienced intraoperative hypotension.Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the risk factors for intraoperative hypotension during cesarean section and to establish a risk prediction model.The sensitivity and specificity of the model were evaluated by using the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test.Results:Among the 245 cesarean section patients,a total of 128 experienced intraoperative hypotension,with a prevalence of 52.24%.The results of Logistic regression analysis showed that the maternal's post-pregnancy body mass index,uterine height,sensory block plane,and abdominal circumference were the risk factors for intraoperative hypotension in cesarean section parturients.The risk prediction model was drawn.The area under the ROC curve(AUC)of this model was 0.918,with a sensitivity of 0.904 and a specificity of 0.872.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed a good fit.Conclusion:The established prediction model for intraoperative hypotension in cesarean section parturient has a good predictive effect.It could provide reference for clinical identification of risks and timely implementation of preventive intervention measures.