Construction of a risk prediction model for venous thromboembolism in patients with heart failure
YANG Lijie
ZHANG Jianxia
LI Haiting
HAN Xue
TIAN Jing
Abstract：Objective:To analyze the risk factors for venous thromboembolism(VTE)in patients with heart failure and to construct a risk prediction model.Methods:Clinical data of 1 799 patients with heart failure from a tertiary grade A hospital in Shanxi province from January 2018 to December 2022 were retrospectively collected.Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analysis were used to screen the risk factors of venous thromboembolism in patients with heart failure.R software was used to construct a risk prediction model and to verify its prediction efficiency.Results:Among 1 799 patients with heart failure,205 cases(11.4%)developed venous thromboembolism.Logistic regression analysis showed that age,gender,hospitalization times,hospitalization days,NT-proBNP,D-dimer,lower limb varicose veins and PT-INR were influencing factors for venous thromboembolism in patients with heart failure.Based on the above factors,a nomogram risk prediction model was established.The area under the ROC curve was 0.762(95%CI 0.723-0.800).The consistency index of the model was 0.751.Conclusions:Age,gender,hospitalization times,hospitalization days,NT-proBNP,D-dimer,lower limb varicose veins and PT-INR were the influencing factors affecting venous thromboembolism in patients with heart failure.The prediction model based on the above risk factors has good predictive value.It could effectively predict the risk of venous embolism in patients with heart failure.
Keywords：heart failurevenous thromboembolismNomographrisk prediction modelinfluencing factors
Publication Date：2026-02-10
Online Publishing Date：2026-02-04(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：8( 403-410 )