Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for depression in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis

ZENG Yi; LI Xia; TANG Zhihong

doi:10.12102/j.issn.1009-6493.2025.16.011

Abstract：Objective:To explore the risk factors for depression in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis.To construct Nomogram prediction model and to verify the predictive effect of the model.Methods:A total of 710 patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis admitted to a tertiary grade A hospital from March to August 2024 were selected as the research subjects,and divided into the modeling group(532 cases)and the validation group(178 cases)at a ratio of 3∶1.The patients in the modeling group were divided into two groups:those with depression and those without depression,based on whether they developed depression or not.Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors for depression,establish a predictive model,and draw a Nomogram.The discrimination and calibration of the model were evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test.Results:The incidence of depression in 532 adolescent idiopathic scoliosis patients in the modeling group was 35.5%.Finally,six variables were screened out and a risk prediction model for depression was constructed.The areas under the ROC curves of this model in the modeling group and the validation group were 0.978 and 0.964 respectively,indicating good discrimination.The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed good calibration.Conclusions:The constructed risk prediction model for depression in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis patients could predict the occurrence of depression in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis patients quite well.And it could provide reference for the timely adoption of preventive intervention measures.