The construction of risk prediction model of pre-frailty in elderly patients with colorectal cancer undergoing chemotherapy
LU Jinhong
CHEN Haiyun
ZHONG Wenwen
TAN Yulei
ZHUO Li
YUAN Yaqin
Abstract：Objective:To investigate the statues quo of pre-frailty in elderly patients with colorectal cancer undergoing chemotherapy,analyze its influencing factors and construct a risk prediction model.Methods:A total of 290 elderly patients with colorectal cancer undergoing chemotherapy who were hospitalized in a tertiary hospital in Guangzhou were selected as subjects by convenience sampling from September 1,2023 to February 18,2024.General information questionnaire,Frailty Phenotype,The Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale,Nutritional Risk Screening 2002,Barthel Index,The M.D.Anderson Symptom Inventory,Social Support Scale,Seff-Rating Scale of Sleep,and Clock Drawing Test were used to investigate and evaluate patients.Logistic regression analysis was used to explore the influencing factors,RStudio(version 4.1.1)was used to construct the Nomogram risk prediction model,and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and receiver operator characteristic curve were used to analysis the goodness-of-fit and prediction performance of the model.Results:Among the 290 patients,191 patients were in the pre-frailty,accounting for 65.9%.Logistic regression analysis showed that age,history of falls,stoma,hemoglobin,white blood cell count,malnutritional risk,depression status and neuropsychiatric symptoms were the influencing factors of pre-frailty in elderly patients with colorectal cancer undergoing chemotherapy.The results of Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed that χ2=6.896,P=0.548,area under the curve of receiver operator characteristic was 0.867(95%CI 0.825-0.909).The Youden index was the highest(0.568),the sensitivity was 0.780,and the specificity was 0.788 when the critical value was 0.633.Conclusions:The proportion of elderly patients with colorectal cancer undergoing chemotherapy in the stage of pre-frailty is high,and age,history of falls,stoma,hemoglobin,white blood cell count,malnutritional risk,depression status and neurosomatic symptoms are significant predictors of pre-frailty in elderly patients with colorectal cancer undergoing chemotherapy.The risk prediction model based on influencing factors demonstrates good predictive accuracy and discrimination capabilities.
Keywords：elderlycolorectal cancerchemotherapypre-frailtyinfluencing factorsrisk predictionNomogramnursing
Publication Date：2025-03-25
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：9( 910-918 )