Construction of risk prediction model for secondary pulmonary infection in patients with severe stroke based on Controlling Nutritional Status score
ZHOU Shuhong
LI Feng
YANG Jiajia
ZHANG Ruixin
LIU Guangwei
Abstract：Objective:To evaluate the immunonutritional status of patients with severe stroke based on Controlling Nutritional Status(CONUT)score,and to construct a risk prediction model for secondary pulmonary infection in patients with severe stroke.Methods:A total of 181 patients with severe stroke who were admitted to the neurological intensive care unit of the First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University were selected as the study subjects from August 2021 to August 2023.The general data,CONUT score and incidence of pulmonary infection were retrospectively collected.Logistic regression analysis was used to explore the influencing factors of pulmonary infection in patients with severe stroke,and the Nomogram prediction model was established.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and calibration diagram were drawn to evaluate the risk prediction ability of the Nomogram model.10-fold cross validation was used for internal verification of the model.Results:The results of the Logistic regression analysis showed that CONUT score,endotracheal intubation,nasogastric tube,Glasgow Coma Scale score and Charlson comorbidity index are independent influencing factors for secondary pulmonary infection in patients with severe stroke.After correction for Endotracheal intubation,nasogastric tube,Glasgow Coma Scale score,and Charlson comorbidity index,the risk of pulmonary infection was increased in the CONUT high group compared with the low group[OR=5.968,95%CI(1.728,22.560)].The area under the ROC curve of the model for predicting secondary pulmonary infection in patients with severe stroke was 0.841[95%CI(0.764,0.917)].The 10-fold cross validation showed robust results with area under the ROC curve of 0.815.The calibration curve of the model was close to the actual curve,and the distribution was not far from the ideal curve.Conclusions:The CONUT score of patients with severe stroke at the time of admission to the intensive care unit is the influencing factor of secondary pulmonary infection,and the prediction model based on the CONUT score has good prediction performance.
Keywords：Controlling Nutritional Status scoreintensive carestrokepulmonary infectionrisk predictionNomogram
Publication Date：2025-01-24
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 231-236 )