Construction and verification of social avoidance risk prediction model in young and middle-aged stroke patients
ZHAO Hangchi
ZHANG Lei
SUN Feiyang
REN Shengnan
ZHANG Yuwei
Abstract：Objective:To construct and verify the social avoidance risk prediction model of young and middle-aged stroke patients,so as to provide reference for reducing the social avoidance of patients.Methods:A total of 392 young and middle-aged stroke patients from 2 tertiary grade A hospitals in Jinzhou were selected.Neurological function,sleep,ability of activities of daily living,mental toughness,perceived social support,perceived social support and social avoidance were measured.Through univariate analysis and multivariate LASSO regression analysis,the risk factors of patients' social avoidance were discussed,and the risk prediction model was established.The calibration plot and the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve were used to evaluate the prediction efficiency of the model.Results:The detection rate of social avoidance in young and middle-aged stroke patients in modeling group was 40.56%.LASSO regression results showed that stroke location,neurological impairment,sleep,activities of daily living,psychological resilience and perceived social support were the influencing factors of social avoidance.The Nomogram prediction model based on the above 6 independent influencing factors had good discrimination and reliability.The area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was 0.839 in internal verification and 0.829 in external verification.Conclusion:The incidence of social avoidance in young and middle-aged stroke patients is high,and the constructed prediction model is helpful to effectively predict the risk of early social avoidance in patients.
Keywords：strokeyoung and middle-agedsocial avoidanceinfluencing factorsprediction model
Publication Date：2024-11-10
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：7( 3761-3767 )