Construction of risk prediction model of oral mucosal pressure injury in elderly patients with oral tube intubation in ICU
ZHANG Shuguang
JIANG Hongbiao
HOU Jie
LIU Qian
LIU Shujuan
Abstract：Objective:To construct the risk prediction model of oral mucosal pressure injury in elderly patients with oral tube intubation in ICU,and to verify it internally and externally.Methods:A total of 533 elderly patients hospitalized in the ICU of a tertiary grade A hospital in Shandong province from January 2022 to August 2023 were selected by convenience sampling method.The influence factors were determined by single factor analysis and Logistic regression analysis,and the prediction model of the Nomogram was constructed.The differentiation and calibration of the model were evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.Decision curve analysis(DCA)was used to evaluate the clinical validity of the model.Results:Gender,APACHE Ⅱ scores,hemoglobin,serum albumin,prone position ventilation,vasoconstrictor drugs,and endotracheal intubation retention time were the influencing factors of oral mucosal pressure injury in elderly patients with oral tube intubation in ICU(P<0.05).The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the constructed model was 0.870.Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that the calibration curve of the model fitted well with the ideal curve.The prediction accuracy of external verification was 85.0%.And DCA ranged from 0.03 to 0.50,which showed a positive net benefit.Conclusions:The constructed risk prediction model has good predictive efficacy,and it can provide reference for early clinical identification of high-risk groups of oral mucosal pressure injury in elderly patients with oral tube intubation in ICU.
Keywords：intensive care unitoral tube intubationpressure injuryprediction modelinfluencing factors
Publication Date：2024-10-25
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 3592-3597 )