Construction and validation of risk factors model related to hemorrhage in patients with coronary heart disease after PCI 1 year

SONG Lihua; FU Jijing; WANG Junwei

doi:10.12102/j.issn.1009-6493.2024.19.004

Abstract：Objective:Based on LASSO-Logistic regression analysis of hemorrhage related factors in patients with coronary atherosclerotic heart disease(CHD)1 year after percutaneous coronary intervention(PCI),and to establish a Nomogram prediction model for timely and effective clinical intervention.Methods:226 patients with coronary heart disease who underwent PCI in our hospital from January to December 2021 were selected as the study objects,and were divided into hemorrhage group and non-hemorrhage group according to whether they had hemorrhage one year after PCI.LASSO-Logistic regression was used to screen the risk factors of hemorrhage 1 year after PCI,and further construct a Nomogram prediction model.Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and calibration curve were used to verify the value of Nomogram prediction model.Results:One year after PCI,the incidence of hemorrhage in 226 patients with coronary heart disease was 11.95% .Age≥60 years old,gastrointestinal history,chronic renal insufficiency,use of vessel closure,balloon dilation times,PARIS score,precision-DAPT score were the risk factors for bleeding 1 year after PCI(P<0.05).The Nomogram prediction model predicted the AUC of hemorrhage at 1 year after PCI to be 0.959.Conclusion:Age≥60 years,history of digestive tract,chronic renal insufficiency,use of vessel closure,balloon dilation times,PARIS score and precision-DAPT score are risk factors for hemorrhage 1 year after PCI in patients with coronary heart disease.The establishment of a Nomogram prediction model based on LASSO-Logistic regression analysis has a certain value in predicting hemorrhage 1 year after PCI.Clinical screening and strict observation of high-risk groups should be carried out,and reasonable treatment measures should be formulated to reduce the risk of hemorrhage.