Comparison of predictive value of three fall risk assessment tools among middle-aged and elderly people in nursing facilities

LI Jiuhong; CHEN Ting; HUANG Lingzhi; DONG Alan; ZHANG Suxia; XIE Juanyu; WU Ping

doi:10.12102/j.issn.1009-6493.2024.13.007

Abstract：Objective:To compare and explore the predictive value of three fall risk assessment tools,which were Morse Fall Assessment Scale(MFS),St Thomas's Risk Assessment Tool(STRATIFY Scale),and Short Physical Performance Battery(SPPB)in middle-aged and elderly people in nursing facilities.Methods:4 041 cases of middle-aged and elderly people were randomly selected from a total of 80 nursing homes in 4 cities and prefectures in Hunan province using the General Information Questionnaire,MFS,STRATIFY Scale,and SPPB Scale.The ROC curves were used to assess the predictive effect of different fall assessment scales on falls.Results:A total of 4 041 cases of middle-aged and elderly people in nursing institutions were investigated,and 676 people(16.73%)had fallen within one year.The results showed that there were statistically significant differences between the fall group and the no-fall group in comparing middle-aged and elderly people in age,gender,whether they had comorbid chronic diseases,and whether they were depressed(P<0.05).The AUC of the MFS was 0.850(95%CI 0.834-0.867),and the Jorden index was 0.597 when the total score was 37.5,and the scale had the greatest predictive value;the AUC of the STRATIFY was 0.764(95%CI 0.744-0.783),when the total score was 1.5,and the Jorden index was 0.407,and the scale had the greatest predictive value;the AUC of the SPPB was 0.675(95%CI 0.654-0.697),when the total score was 7.5,and the Jorden index was 0.293,and the scale had the greatest predictive value.The AUC of the MFS scale and the Jorden index were higher than the other two scales.Conclusion:MFS,STRATIFY,and SPPB all have predictive value for the fall risk of the elderly in nursing facilities,and the predictive value of MFS is higher than STRATIFY and SPPB.