Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for deep vein thrombosis in orthopedic patients during surgery
LYU Mengshuang
ZHENG Xican
XIE Suli
SUN Zhiyan
QU Jingrui
LIU Ruiting
Abstract：Objective:To construct a risk prediction model for deep vein thrombosis(DVT)in orthopedic patients during surgery and verify it.Methods:Patients admitted to our hospital who require orthopedic surgery treatment were selected as the research subjects from January 2021 to December 2022.272 patients undergoing orthopedic surgery from January 2021 to April 2022 were selected as the modeling group,and 151 patients undergoing orthopedic surgery from May to December 2022 were selected as the external validation group.Patient general information,medical history,laboratory test indicators,and operating room indicators were investigated.The influencing factors of DVT in orthopedic patients during surgery were analyzed.A predictive model was constructed.And Nomogram was drawn.Results:Among 423 patients,97 patients with DVT,the incidence of DVT was 23%.The results of multivariate analysis showed that age,body mass index(BMI),D-dimer,surgical duration,whether blood transfusion was performed during surgery or not,intraoperative bleeding volume,and whether bone cement was used or not were the influencing factors of DVT in orthopedic patients during surgery.The goodness of fit test results of the risk prediction model constructed based on these influencing factors showed that,χ2=1.643,P=0.897.Area under the curve(AUC)of receiver operator characteristic of the modeling group was 0.872,the maximum value of the Youden index was 0.750,the optimal critical value was 0.079,the sensitivity was 75%,and the specificity was 86%.The AUC of receiver operator characteristic of the external validation group was 0.837,the maximum value of Youden index was 0.728,the sensitivity was 72%,the specificity was 82%,and the diagnostic value was 0.165.Conclusions:Age,body mass index(BMI),D-dimer,surgical duration,whether blood transfusion was performed during surgery or not,intraoperative bleeding volume,and whether bone cement was used or not have effect on DVT in orthopedic patients.The model constructed based on these influencing factors can better predict the risk of DVT in orthopedic patients during surgery.
Keywords：orthopedicssurgeryduring surgerydeep vein thrombosisDVTinfluencing factorsrisk prediction modelnursing
Publication Date：2024-05-25
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：8( 1711-1718 )