Establishment and evaluation of risk prediction scoring model of multi-drug resistant organisms infection after liver transplantation
Abstract：Objective:To establish and evaluate the risk prediction model of multi-drug resistant organisms (MDROs) infection after liver transplantation.Method:A total of 366 liver transplant patients were selected.Among them,239 cases were modeled and 127 cases were validated.The clinical data in perioperative period were collected.The risk factors of MDROs infection were screened by univariate analysis and multiple logistic regression analysis.Hocmer-Lemeshow(H-L) chi-square test and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used to evaluate the predictive compliance degree and discriminant validity of the model.The risk prediction model was constructed according to the partial regression coefficients of each risk factor in the model.Results:Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the independent risk factors of MDROs infection were preoperative antimicrobial therapy,preoperative prothrombin time prolonged,postoperative tracheal intubation time≥72 h,postoperative indwelling ICU time≥10 d,postoperative biliary tract.The scores of the score were 0.404 and 0.173 in the model group and the validation group,respectively.The area under the ROC curve was 0.809 and 0.753 respectively.Conclusions:The established scoring model had a good predictive compliance degree and discriminant validity,and had good predictability for the occurrence of MDROs infection after liver transplantation.
Keywords：liver transplantationmulti-drug resistant organismsMDROshospital infectionrisk factorsrisk predictionscoring model
Publication Date：2017-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 2076-2080 )