Establishment and validation of a nomogram for risk prediction of persistent hypocalcemia after radical resection of differentiated thyroid cancer
LI Jingjing
ZHANG Yin
WANG Yunliang
Abstract：Objective To explore the risk factors for persistent hypocalcemia after radical resection of differentiated thyroid cancer(DTC)and to construct a risk prediction model for postoperative persistent hypocalcemia.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of 208 patients with DTC in the Department of Surgery of Xinghai Hospital and the Department of Thyroid and Breast Surgery of the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University from January 2021 to July 2025.According to whether persistent hypocalcemia occurred after the operation,the patients were divided into the hypocalcemia group(35 cases)and the normal blood calcium group(173 cases).A comprehensive risk prediction model for persistent hypocalcemia after DTC surgery was constructed by comparing the indicators with statistically significant differences between the the two groups through multiple regression analysis,and this model was verified.Results Gender,age,body mass index(BMI),hyperlipidemia,hypertension,diabetes mellitus,and lateral cervical lymph node dissection were not associated with the risk of persistent hypocalcemia after DTC surgery(P>0.05).The extent of resection,the scope of central lymph node dissection,tumor capsule invasion,operation time,accidental parathyroidectomy,and parathyroid hormone were associated with the risk of persistent hypocalcemia after DTC surgery(P<0.05).Total thyroidectomy,bilateral central lymph node dissection,dorsal capsule invasion,and accidental parathyroidectomy were identified as risk factors for persistent hypocalcemia after radical resection of DTC(P<0.05).A nomogram prediction model was established based on the above 4 risk factors.The predicted values were basically consistent with the measured values,indicating that the nomogram prediction model in this study had good predictive ability.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)was 0.871(95%confidence interval:0.837-0.903).Conclusion The nomogram model established in this study can predict the risk of persistent hypocalcemia after radical resection of differentiated thyroid cancer,providing a quantitative tool for clinical intervention.
Keywords：differentiated thyroid cancerpersistent hypocalcemiaradical resectionnomogramrisk prediction
Publication Date：2025-12-20
Online Publishing Date：2025-12-29(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 54-58,120 )