Prediction model for chronic low back pain after PKP in patients with osteoporotic lumbar fractures:Development and validation of a nomogram
HU Xiaochun
SONG Jincheng
LIN Xiaolong
ZHANG Yi
ZHAO Keping
Abstract：Objective To construct and validate a column chart prediction model for the risk of chronic back pain in patients with osteoporotic lumbar vertebral fractures(OLVCF)undergoing percutaneous kyphoplasty(PKP).Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on 310 patients who received PKP treatment in the Department of Orthopedics at First People's Hospital of Zhangjigang from August 2022 and August 2024.Based on VAS scores 12 months after surgery,the patients were divided into a chronic back pain risk group(n=70)and a non-chronic back pain risk group(n=240).Clinical data of patients were collected,univariate and multivariate analysis of chronic low back pain was conducted,risk factors related to chronic low back pain were screened,a column chart prediction model was constructed,and its application was validated.Results Multivariate logistic regression demonstrated that low preoperative bone mineral density(BMD),paraspinal fascia injury,vertebral fissure sign,and incomplete coverage of the fracture line by bone cement were independent risk factors for chronic low back pain after PKP(P<0.05).The nomogram model showed good discrimination with a concordance index(C-index)of 0.871,indicating favorable predictive performance and clinical utility.Conclusion The nomogram model of chronic low back pain risk after PKP constructed in this study can effectively evaluate the risk of chronic low back pain,provide preoperative individualized assessment tools,optimize clinical management,and improve patient prognosis.
Keywords：osteoporotic lumbar vertebral fracturepercutaneous kyphoplastychronic low back painnomogramrisk assessment
Publication Date：2025-10-20
Online Publishing Date：2025-12-11(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 29-32,53 )