Construction and verification of an intraoperative hypothermia risk prediction model for patients undergoing digestive system surgery

ZHANG Chenxia; ZHANG Yujuan; ZHU Liang

doi:10.3969/j.issn.2095-8331.2024.02.013

Abstract：Objective To investigate the influencing factors of intraoperative hypothermia in patients undergoing digestive system surgery,and to construct a nomogram model with the data for verification.Methods The data of 460 patients who underwent digestive system surgery in the Affiliated Changzhou No.2 People's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University from January 2023 to December 2023 were retrospectively analyzed.The occurrence of intraoperative hypothermia in patients undergoing digestive system surgery was described.Univariate and multivariate analysis of intraoperative hypothermia in patients undergoing digestive system surgery was applied.A predictive model was constructed and the predictive efficacy of intraoperative hypothermia in patients undergoing digestive system surgery was analyzed.Results Among the 460 patients who underwent digestive system surgery,283 were finally identified as having intraoperative hypothermia,and the incidence of intraoperative hypothermia was 61.52%.Univariate analysis showed that there were statistically significant differences in operating room cleanliness,surgical grade,anesthesia time and basal body temperature at the beginning of surgery between patients without intraoperative hypothermia and patients with intraoperative hypothermia(P<0.05).Logistic multivariate analysis showed that the cleanliness of operating room,surgical grade,anesthesia time,and basal body temperature at the beginning of surgery were independent influencing factors for intraoperative hypothermia in patients undergoing digestive system surgery(P<0.05).The independent influencing factors of logistic regression model and the prediction probability of P-value were used to predict the occurrence of intraoperative hypothermia in patients with digestive system surgery.The area under the curve was 0.634,0.685,0.716,0.659 and 0.858,respectively.Conclusions The risk of intraoperative hypothermia is high in patients undergoing digestive system surgery.The cleanliness of operating room,operation grade,anesthesia time,and basal body temperature at the beginning of surgery are independent influencing factors for intraoperative hypothermia in patients undergoing digestive system surgery.The predictive model based on various influencing factors can better predict the outcome of intraoperative hypothermia in patients undergoing digestive system surgery.