Correlation between serum uric acid dynamic changes and incidence of new-onset hypertension in health examination populations and their predictive efficacy
WANG Dongwei
LIU Zhihan
SU Tong
WU Daoxing
YANG Guang
MENG Lingdong
Abstract：Objective To investigate the association between dynamic changes in serum uric acid(ΔsUA)and the incidence of new-onset hypertension in a health examination population,and to evaluate the predictive efficacy of ΔsUA and baseline serum uric acid(sUA)for new-onset hypertension.Methods Subjects from Health Management Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Shandong First Medical University(Shandong Qianfushan Hospital)in 2019-2021 were se-lected for the study.ΔsUA was defined as the difference between the 2021 sUA value minus the 2019 sUA value.Stratifi-cation was based on sex and quartiles of ΔsUA.The correlation between ΔsUA and new-onset hypertension was analyzed using Logistic regression risk models with stepwise adjustment.We drew the restricted cubic spline plot and forest plot to further analyze the correlation between ΔsUA and new-onset hypertension.In addition,the predictive efficacy of sUA andΔsUA for the new-onset hypertension was compared using receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves.Results We included 1,222 healthy individuals(male-to-female ratio:1,205:1,917)from health examinations of March 2019 and identified 621 new-onset hypertension cases in 2021.Logistic regression analysis showed that ΔsUA was significantly asso-ciated with new-onset hypertension in the total population,with an adjusted odds ratio(OR)of 1.008(95%CI:1.006-1.009;P<0.05).When we stratified the population by gender,women exhibited a stronger trend of increasing hyperten-sion risk compared to men as ΔsUA levels rose.Specifically,in the Q4 group(ΔsUA≥55 µmol/L),the OR(95%CI)was 3.207(2.192-4.692)for women versus 2.076(1.396-3.089)for men.Using quartile stratification with the Q2 group(-49.25 to<1.00 µmol/L)as the reference,we observed the lowest hypertension risk in the Q1 group(ΔsUA<-49.25 µmol/L;OR=0.537,95%CI:0.401-0.721).The risk progressively increased in the Q3(1.00-<55.00 µmol/L;OR=2.724,95%CI:2.013-3.686)and Q4 groups(≥55 µmol/L;OR=4.882,95%CI:3.577-6.664),with both P<0.05.For predictive performance,the optimal cut-off value for baseline sUA was 0.398 µmol/L,yielding a sensitivity of 0.690 and specificity of 0.707.The ΔsUA cut-off of 0.541 µmol/L showed improved predictive accuracy with sensitivi-ty of 0.768 and specificity of 0.773.Conclusions ΔsUA is associated with new-onset hypertension in the healthy check-up population and increased ΔsUA serves as an independent risk factor for new-onset hypertension in this population.The risk of new-onset hypertension is higher in women than in men,and ΔsUA demonstrates predictive value for new-onset hy-pertension in the healthy check-up population.
Keywords：serum uric acid changesbasal serum uric acidnew-onset hypertensiongender difference
Publication Date：2025-04-25
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 54-58 )