Analysis of risk factors for laryngeal cancer recurrence after treatment and predictive model construction
GUO Shanshan
YANG Wenjing
XU Liping
TAO Qian
WANG Huan
WANG Shuqian
Abstract：Objective To analyze the factors influencing the recurrence of laryngeal cancer(LC)after treatment and to construct a predictive model for LC recurrence.Methods Eighty patients with LC who had been treated(with sur-gical resection,radiotherapy,chemotherapy,or targeted therapy)were divided into the recurrence group(17 cases)and non-recurrence group(63 cases)according to whether a relapse occurred during the follow-up period.The information on the patients'age,sex,body mass index,smoking history,alcohol consumption history,LC family history,underlying dis-eases,tumor staging,tumor location,tumor pathological classification,tumor diameter,tumor infiltration depth,treat-ment plan,and other factors was collected.Serum mRNA levels of cytoskeletal protein 4(CKAP4),polypeptide N-acetyl-galactosamine transferase 2(pp-GalNAc-T2),and transmembrane protein 2(TMEM2)were measured using qRT PCR.Cox regression analysis was performed to analyze the influencing factors for LC recurrence.Logistic regression analysis was performed to construct a predictive model for LC recurrence,and the predictive value of the model for LC recurrence was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve.Results The recurrence group showed a significant-ly higher proportion of tumors of stages Ⅲ-Ⅳ and significantly higher relative mRNA expression of serum CKAP4,pp-Gal-NAc-T2,and TMEM2 than the non-recurrence group(all P<0.05).The relative mRNA expression levels of CKAP4,pp-GalNAc-T2,and TMEM2 in serum were influencing factors for the recurrence of patients with LC after treatment(all P<0.05).We constructed a predictive model for LC recurrence after treatment:predictive probability=-8.967+0.724×the relative expression level of serum CKAP4 mRNA+0.081×the relative expression level of serum pp-GalNAc-T2 mRNA+ 1.132×the relative expression level of serum TMEM2 mRNA.The ROC curve analysis revealed that the model showed good predictive value for LC recurrence(AUC=0.872,95%CI:0.779-0.962,the cut-off value≥0.229,P<0.001).The sensitivity,specificity,negative predictive value,and positive predictive value of this model in predicting LC recur-rence were 88.23%,79.36%,96.13%,and 53.57%,respectively.Conclusion The relative serum expression levels of CKAP4 mRNA,pp-GalNAc-T2 mRNA,and TMEM2 mRNA are factors affecting the recurrence of patients with LC after treatment,and the model constructed based on these factors has high predictive value for LC recurrence.
Keywords：tumor recurrencelaryngeal carcinomacytoskeletal protein 4N-acetylgalactosamine transferase 2transmembrane protein 2predictive model
Publication Date：2023-11-25
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 27-31 )