Evolution of ENSO prediction skill in NMME and possible causes
JIANG Hangjiao
LU Lü
Abstract：Using the North American Multi-Model Ensemble(NMME)hindcasts and ERSST observations,we investigate how the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)prediction skill changes with the NMME model update and its possible causes.The NMME is divided into 4 phases of model update,approximately representing the operational model suites of 2011-2012,2012-2014,2014-2019 and 2019-present.ENSO prediction skills are analyzed in the hindcast for the period of 1982-2010.Results show that ENSO prediction skill does not change much in short-term prediction but improves significantly in long-term prediction with the model update.The possible reasons for the improvement are the improvement of ENSO spring prediction barrier and the improvement of NMME's prediction skill for Atlantic Niño/Niña.
Keywords：North American Multi-Model Ensemble(NMME)ENSO prediction skillcause analysis
Publication Date：2025-12-30
Online Publishing Date：2026-05-22(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：14( 57-70 )