Evaluation and projection of extreme temperature indices in Shandong by CMIP6 models
SHEN Yifan
GAO Xiaomei
XIE Jincai
YANG Meng
WANG Shijie
WANG Wenbo
GUO Jinghuan
Abstract：Based on CMIP6 climate models and CN05.1 grid observation data,the simulation of the extreme temperature indices in Shandong by CMIP6 models is evaluated.Meanwhile,the changing trends of the future extreme temperature indices in Shandong under three shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs)scenarios during different time periods in the future are predicted,and the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of the extreme temperature indices under different SSPs scenarios are explored in depth.The estimated results indicate that,compared with the base period from 1995 to 2014,the annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature(TXx)and annual minimum value of daily minimum temperature(TNn)in Shandong will show an upward trend in the future,and the warming of TNn will be more obvious than that of TXx,while both the number of frost days(FD)and icing days(ID)will show a decreasing trend.From the perspective of spatial distribution,in the future,both the highest TXx and the lowest TNn(the lowest TXx and the highest TNn)will appear in the northwestern region of Shandong(the southeastern region of Shandong and Shandong Peninsula),and the number of FD and ID will be the largest in the northern region of Shandong.
Keywords：CMIP6 modelShandongextreme temperature indexevaluationSSPs scenario projection
Publication Date：2025-08-30
Online Publishing Date：2026-05-22(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：11( 105-115 )