Prediction of Suitable Distribution Areas of Chinese Wild Rose(Rosa rugosa)in Different Periods Based on the MaxEnt Model

ZHANG Zhiwen; XU Jianjun; ZANG Fengqi; MA Yan; ZANG Dekui; ZHOU Changling; LU Yizeng; WU Qichao

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2724.2025.04.002

Abstract：Wild rose(Rosa rugosa)is a famous ornamental and spice plant of the Rosaceae family,which is of immeasurable significance for the protection and development of wild roses in China.ArcGIS and MaxEnt were used to predict the suitable distribution areas of wild roses in China during the last glacial maximum(21 ka BP),contemporary(1990-2010)and future(2060-2080),and the dominant environmental factors affecting its distribution were screened.The results showed that:(1)The predicted AUC value of the MaxEnt model for the suitable distribution area of wild roses was 0.999,which was highly accurate,indicating that the results could be used to study the division of suitable areas of wild roses.(2)The predicted suitable habitat range of wild rose under contemporary climatic conditions was 115°-125° E and 35°-45° N.The suitable distribution areas are mainly concentrated in Sichuan,Shandong,Hebei,Liaoning,Jilin,Heilongjiang and other regions.The total area of the contemporary suitable areas of wild rose is 176.94 × 104 km2,accounting for 18.43％of the total land area.(3)In the future(2060-2080),the areas of suitable areas of wild rose is the largest,and compared with the contemporary period(1990-2010),the area increase of high suitable areas is 11.49× 104 km2,which is 148.58％of the contemporary area.(4)Jackknife method cut analysis showed that the main environmental variables affecting the suitable distribution of wild roses were Bio18(average rainfall in the warmest season),Bio3(the ratio of diurnal temperature difference to annual temperature difference),Bio5(highest temperature in the hottest month)and Bio 12(annual average rainfall).This study provides a scientific basis for the conservation,development and utilization of wild rose resources.