Analysis of vehicle CO2 emissions in Jinan City based on the MOVES model

GUO Meng; FENG Haixia; WANG Xingyu; ZHU Maoxin; XU Zhixin; WANG Jun

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1672-0032.2025.06.005

Abstract：To quantify the impacts of the CO2 emission factor,fuel consumption,and traffic operating conditions on vehicle CO2 emissions,this study takes Jinan City as the research area.Based on a localized MOVES model,a speed-based CO2 emission factor model is constructed,and the relationship among the CO2 emission factor,fuel consumption,and vehicle speed is established to analyze the influence of different traffic conditions on vehicle CO2 emissions in Jinan.The results show that the CO2 emission factors of different vehicle types differ significantly but follow generally consistent trends with changes in average speed.When the average speed is below 10 km/h,the CO2 emission factors of all vehicle types remain at a high level.As the average speed increases to 10-50 km/h,the CO2 emission factors decrease rapidly.When the average speed reaches 50-100 km/h,the CO2 emission factors gradually stabilize and remain at a relatively low level.At speeds between 100 km/h and 120 km/h,most vehicle types show an increasing trend in CO2 emission factors.From 2017 to 2022,the average peak-hour speed in the core area of Jinan increased from 20.18 km/h to 31.72 km/h.The alleviation of traffic congestion reduced the CO2 emission factors of gasoline passenger cars,gasoline light-duty trucks,diesel light-duty trucks,and diesel heavy-duty trucks by 21.71％,21.23％,18.84％,and 15.35％,respectively.For gasoline passenger cars alone,this translates to an annual reduction in gasoline consumption of approximately 936 000 tons and a reduction in CO2 emissions of about 3.12 million tons.The proposed model is compared with the CO2 emissions factor model based on vehicle specific power,and both show generally consistent trends of CO2 emission factors with vehicle speed.Within the speed range of 15-60 km/h,the constructed model fits the relationship between CO2 emission factors and average speed well,demonstrating its applicability to the study of CO2 emissions from urban road traffic.Improving urban traffic operational efficiency is an important pathway to reducing vehicle CO2 emissions.