Measurement,spatiotemporal evolution and obstacle diagnosis of new-quality productive forces in transportation
LI Xiao
MA Ling
Abstract：To systematically analyze the development level of transportation new-quality productive forces in China,using provincial panel data for 30 provincial-level administrative regions from 2014 to 2022(excluding the Xizang Autonomous Region,the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,the Macao Special Administrative Region,and Taiwan Province),an evaluation index system for the development level of transportation new-quality productive forces is constructed based on its connotation and characteristics.The system covers five dimensions:transportation innovation foundation,advancement of transportation infrastructure,green development of transportation,transportation efficiency and safety,and transportation economic resources.The entropy weight method,the Dagum Gini coefficient,kernel density estimation,Moran's I,and the obstacle degree model are employed to analyze development levels,regional disparities,evolutionary features,spatial correlation,and obstacle factors.From 2014 to 2022,the national development level rose steadily,but regional development is uneven,showing a pattern of eastern leadership,relative stability in the central region,and lagging performance in the west and the northeast.Intra-regional disparities widened in the east,center,and west,while they narrowed slightly in the northeast;inter-regional differences are the main source of overall disparity.Significant positive spatial autocorrelation is observed,with many eastern provinces in a high-high cluster and other regions mainly in low-low clusters.Optical cable line density,express delivery volume,and software business revenue are identified as key obstacle factors constraining development.Strengthening regional coordination,optimizing resource allocation,guiding spatial agglomeration,and focusing on critical factors can systematically improve the development quality of transportation new-quality productive forces.
Keywords：new-quality productive forces in transportationregional disparityevolutionary characteristicsentropy weight methodMoran's I
Publication Date：2025-11-30
Online Publishing Date：2026-05-22(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：14( 1-14 )