Identification and Evaluation Analysis of Wind Power Ramp Events—A Case Study of Shanxi Province
LI Chen
HAN Chao
JIN Chenxi
LEI Ting
Abstract：Based on observation and forecast data of 15-min wind power output of all wind farms in Shanxi Province from March 2022 to March 2023,this study analyzed the errors of"power prediction curves"in the provincial wind power trading market.The forecasting effectiveness of wind power ramp events was evaluated by developing identification,matching,and scoring methods.The ERA5 reanalysis data were used to analyze the weather background and evolution of large-scale wind power ramp-up events.The results are shown as follows:(1)For all seasons,the periods around 08:00(Beijing Time,same below)and 20:00 are the two daily peaks of forecast error.Meanwhile,the error dispersion for the two periods is relatively large,with a maximum value of up to 4 000 MW.(2)The occurrence frequency for weak ramp events is significantly higher than strong ramp events.The forecasting skill score for weak ramp events is 0.23,which is higher than strong ramp events(0.05).(3)Wind power ramp events mainly occur in winter and spring.The periods around 8:00 and 19:00 each day are the concentrated occurrence times for ramp-down and ramp-up events,respectively.Ramp-up events mainly occur from afternoon to the first half of the night,while ramp-down events are dominant from the second half of the night to the next morning.(4)When Shanxi Province is located behind a high surface pressure or in front of an upper-air trough,the intensification of the surface high pressure or the establishment of a pre-trough low-level jet will lead to province-wide wind power ramp-up events.
Keywords：wind power rampwind powerforecasting skill scoresynoptic analysis
Publication Date：2025-12-31
Online Publishing Date：2026-01-12(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：14( 783-796 )