Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics and Attribution Analysis of Tropical Cyclones Affecting China over the Past 73 Years

MENG Fanchang; LI Benxia; WANG Juanjuan

doi:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2025.006

Abstract：Based on the tropical cyclone(TC)best track data released by the China Meteorological Administration for the period from 1949 to 2021,this study analyzed the historical variations in the frequency,intensity,and genesis locations of TCs that crossed the 24-hour typhoon warning boundary established by the Central Meteorological Observatory of China.The results were as follows.(1)From 1949 to 2021,there was an average of about 15.1 TCs affecting China each year,predominantly occurring in July,August,and September.The distribution of TCs of varying intensities differed slightly by month,with a tendency for more high-intensity TCs in the last few months of the year.(2)Over the long term,the number of TCs affecting China exhibited a slight declining trend,characterized by alternating periods of increased and decreased activity.A downward trend has been observed from 2017 to the present.(3)The genesis locations of TCs affecting China have gradually shifted westward and northward over the years.(4)The frequency of TCs affecting China correlated with the Niño 3.4 index.A significant negative correlation was found between the Niño 3.4 index and the number of tropical cyclones,tropical storms,severe tropical storms,and typhoons,while a positive correlation was noted with the number of super typhoons.(5)The long-term trend in the genesis locations of TCs was closely related to the long-term trend of sea surface temperature.Should the global climate continue to warm,the genesis locations of tropical cyclones may persist in shifting westward and northward,potentially leading to more frequent impacts on the mid-to high-latitude regions of China.