Precipitation Characteristics and DSAEF_LTP Model Precipitation Simulation of Typhoons Affecting Yunnan Province

WEN Gang; MA Yunqi; ZHANG Mingxin; DING Chenchen; WANG Guofang; GENG Hao

doi:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2024.070

Abstract：Based on the best track data from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration for the period 1960-2019 and daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Information Center,this study investigated the characteristics of 221 historical typhoons affecting Yunnan province.Furthermore,the Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast Model for Landfalling Typhoon Precipitation was employed to simulate the precipitation of five target typhoons from 2016 to 2019.The results are as follows.(1)Over the past five decades,3.7 typhoons have affected Yunnan every year,and typhoons have become less frequent.The peak typhoon season was from July to September,with the highest typhoon activities in July and August.The majority of typhoons that affected Yunnan were strong tropical storms and typhoons.Their tracks were mainly northwest and westbound,with landing locations mostly concentrated along the coast of Hainan Island,western Guangdong and Guangxi.(2)Out of the 221 historical typhoons,119 produced daily precipitation at the rainstorm level,and the average daily precipitation during typhoon rainstorms exceeded that of ordinary rainstorms.Spatially,the frequency of typhoon-induced rainstorms was relatively higher in northern Yunnan,while extreme precipitation events were more likely to occur in southern Yunnan.(3)The DSAEF_LTP model demonstrated good overall performance,successfully simulating the precipitation center of these typhoons.The model's results exhibited certain advantages over those of numerical models and may facilitate the prediction of strong precipitation associated with typhoons in Yunnan.