Precursory Signals for Autumn Rain in Shaanxi Province:An Analysis and Hindcast Experiment with a Focus on Offshore Typhoons
DU Lili
MAO Mingce
CHEN Xiaoting
XU Jia
QI Chunjuan
HOU Jianzhong
Abstract：Based on the analysis of the characteristics of strong autumn rain in Shaanxi and typhoon activities along the southeast coast of China since 1970,it is found that the typhoon activities west of 125 °E in the western Pacific Ocean exhibited certain precursory signals that could be linked to the strong autumn rain in Shaanxi.Results show that typhoon activities provided favorable climatic background for autumn precipitation in the years with heavy autumn rain in Shaanxi.During the same period,typhoon paths were mainly westward or northwestward,and the landing locations of typhoons affected the areas where autumn rain mostly occurred in Shaanxi.Based on the precursory signals exhibited by offshore typhoons and the temporal variation and periodicity of autumn precipitation in Shaanxi,a trial hindcast of autumn rain from 2017 to 2022 in Shaanxi was conducted,and the results were relatively satisfactory.This method may serve as an objective climate prediction method for the forecast of strong autumn precipitation in Shaanxi.
Keywords：autumn precipitationoffshore typhoonvariation characteristicscirculation analysisprediction and evaluation
Publication Date：2024-06-28
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：9( 436-444 )