RESEARCH ON THUNDERSTORM GALE WEATHER FORECAST IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE BY USING BAYESIAN METHOD
ZHU Yonghua
WANG Yongqing
HU Zhiqun
Abstract：This paper studied the individual cases of weather with and without thunderstorm gales in Guangdong Province from April to September 2010-2019.The distribution characteristics of environmental parameters related to the weather with thunderstorm gales were analyzed by using boxplots,and the three hours,six hours,and 12 hours thunderstorm gale forecast models were established.The meteorological events from April to September 2020 were tested by using the Bayesian method.The results show that the occurrence of thunderstorm gales corresponds to higher dewpoint temperature on the ground,more unstable energy,temperature difference between upper and lower layers,and total index.According to the test results,the Bayesian method may to some extent identify thunderstorm gales.The hit rate of the prediction model is above 80%,but there are some empty reports,which need to be addressed in the future.
Keywords：thunderstorm galeenvironmental parametersbayesian methodTS scorepotential forecast
Publication Date：2023-12-28
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：11( 929-939 )