INVESTIGATION OF THE IMPACT OF CLOUD INITIALIZATION ON NUMERICAL PREDICTION OF A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
LI Jia
CHEN Bao-de
HUANG Wei
ZHANG Xu
Abstract：Using the second generation of SMS-WARR Shanghai Meteorological Service-WRF ADAS Rapid Refresh System,prediction of a severe convective event in East China is analyzed with the focus on the impact of cloud initialization.Comparison between the prediction results from the experiments with and without cloud initialization shows that the forecast using the cloud initialization can greatly increase the TS score of 0～6 hour rainfall,and the position of the forecasted precipitation is closer to that of the observation.Further analysis indicates that cloud initialization can significantly improve the initial fields of hydrometeors,provide more accurate information of the convection system,and produce better forecasts of hydrometeors and vertical velocity over the severe convection area.Moreover,cloud initiation largely avoids the delay of precipitation occurrence during the early stage and shortens the "spin-up" time due to the lack of the initial microphysical information.However,results with and without the cloud initialization become quite similar to each other when the integration time period exceeds 6 hours.
Keywords：weather forecastforecast methodcloud initializationrapid refresh
Publication Date：2018-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：11( 198-208 )