A PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THE BENEFIT ASSESSMENT OF TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST OF LANDFALL TROPICAL CYCLONES

WU Ying; CHEN Pei-yan; LEI Xiao-tu

doi:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2017.05.011

Abstract：In recent years,the assessment of damage caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) has attracted wide attention,with progress obviously made in evaluation indexes and methods but less so in TCs forecast accuracy,which makes great contribution to the reduction of the damage of TCs.In this paper,we use the data of typhoon real-time prediction from China Meteorological Administration to study the relationship between track,intensity forecast errors and direct economic losses by TCs making landfall on the mainland of China,and establish a prediction model.The results are shown as follows:The relationship is positive between direct economic losses and track or intensity forecast errors of TCs 24 h before and after landfall.If the 24 h track forecast error reduces by lkm,there will be 97 million yuan worth of reduction of direct economic losses caused by TC damages for a single landfall TC.If the 24 h intensity forecast error reduces lm/s,the reduction will be 380 million yuan (normalized by the year of 2014).It can be seen that there will be great benefits to improve the TC track and intensity forecast accuracy for reducing the TC damages.As to the economic benefits,it will be better,at present,to improve the intensity forecast accuracy than the track forecast of landfall TCs.