APPLICATION EXPERIMENT OF LATENT HEAT RETRIEVED FROM RADAR ON SHORT-RANGE FORECASTING IN RAINY SEASON USING REGIONAL NUMERICAL MODEL OVER SOUTHERN CHINA
ZHANG Cheng-zhong
XUE Ji-shan
FENG Ye-rong
WAN Qi-lin
Abstract：Based on latent heat retrieved from radar reflectivity,comparison experiments of initial condition with and without nudging potential temperature increment due to latent heat are conducted for a case of heavy rain process that occurred on 30 march 2015 as well as for the 31 days of May 2013 to estimate the impact of latent heat on short-range precipitation forecast.The results are as follows.(1) The location of maximum center for predicting 12-hour accumulated precipitation is well reproduced with nudging latent heat,while the location of maximum center without nudging latent heat is far northward from the observed one.The hourly forecast reflectivity 4 hours ahead is close to the observed reflectivity in terms of area and intensity,and hourly TS (threat score) is higher than that without nudging latent heat.(2) Diagnosis analysis shows that nudging of latent heat at initial time could adjust the thermal structure of atmosphere in convective area,revising or enhancing the intensity of local secondary circulation,triggering the release of instable energy and being beneficial to the production of precipitation.(3) Analysis of batch experiments indicates that the initial condition with nudging latent heat has significant impact on hourly forecast in the first 12 hours.
Keywords：latent heat retrieved from radarregional numerical model over Southern Chinashort-range forecastassimilation of data
Publication Date：2017-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：11( 577-587 )