APPLICATION OF OPTIMIZATION SCHEME OF MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE IN PREDICTION OF THE HUAIHE RIVER BASIN SUMMER PRECIPITATION
CHENG Zhi
DUAN Chun-feng
DENG Shu-mei
Abstract：Based on the data of four seasonal climate models supplied by the National Climate Centre,two methods of choosing complementary downscaling factors are applied in predicting Huaihe River Basin summer precipitation,effects of every model and downscaling method predicting the precipitation are evaluated by comprehensively utilizing anomaly sign consistency rate,grading evaluation and anomaly correlation coefficient methods,and an optimization scheme is applied for ensemble.The results show that seen from effects of model precipitation prediction,the CFS and TCC models are better,while the NCC and EC models are relatively insufficient;and after downscaling by the two methods based on optimal subset regression,the downscaling results of the NCC,TCC and EC models have higher scores than their original precipitation prediction thanthe CFS model;by using optimal choice between model prediction and downscaling results,the effect of the final ensemble results isfound to be better than a simple ensemble of model prediction or that of model downscaling.This optimization scheme has the advantages of different regional modes and helps improvethe predicting effect of original model ensemble and can be a reference method to improve the technical level of multi-model interpretation and application.
Keywords：climatologymodel interpretation and applicationoptimization schemesummer precipitationHuaihe River Basin
Publication Date：2017-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：9( 241-249 )