CALIBRATION OF THE ENSEMBLE-BASED FORECAST OF SUMMER HEAVY RAINFALL IN SICHUAN
CAO Ping-ping
CHEN Chao-ping
XU Dong-fu
XIAO Di-xiang
WANG Jia-jin
FENG Liang-min
Abstract：Because of many uncertain factors,it is difficult to forecast the heavy rainfall-caused floods which happen easily in Sichuan Province.From the cumulative distribution function of the observations and model forecasts,a method that improves the forecast accuracy of heavy rainfall in Sichuan was developed by using the observed rainfall data in June-August during 2007-2012 and the ECMWF ensemble forecast precipitation data in June-August of 2012-2013.It was applied to an experiment of extreme rainfall events in June-August of 2012 in eastern Sichuan Basin.The results show that after calibration,the heavy rain area is more similar to the observation and the forecast period is greatly extended,which is useful for issuing early warnings of heavy rain processes 6～7 days in advance.In short,the method can significantly improve the forecast with the ECMWF model in eastem Sichuan Basin.
Keywords：ensemble forecastcumulative distribution functionprobability threshold methodheavy rain calibration
Publication Date：2017-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：8( 111-118 )