THE IMPROVEMENTS OF GRAPES_TYM AND ITS PERFORMANCE IN NORTHWEST PACIFIC OCEAN AND SOUTH CHINA SEA IN 2013
ZHANG Jin
MA Su-hong
CHEN De-hui
HUANG Li-ping
Abstract：The regional model GRAPES_TYM for TC intensity and track prediction was developed based on the GRAPES-Mesoin 2009 and was put into operational running in 2012.The results of retrospective forecasting in 2011 and results of operational application in 2012 indicated that there exist systematic northward bias of tracks and positive bias of intensity forecast.The above systematic biases were reduced in 2013 through the improvement of the following three aspects:(1) Integration of the improvement from GRAPES-Meso;(2) upgrading of SAS to MESO-SAS;(3) optimization of vortex initialization scheme.Statistical analysis of 7 cases show that the integration of the improvement from GRAPES-Mesocould reduce 72 h average track error by 10％,but the effectswere not obvious for the intensity prediction.Upgrading of SAS to Meso-SAS could reduce 72 h average track error by another 20％,together with the obvious improvement of 12～48 h intensity prediction.Optimization of vortex initialization scheme further reduces 72 h averagetrack error by 10％ and the intensity prediction errors of 6～24 h.The results from the whole cases in 2013 show that 48～72 h average track errors could be reduced by 15％～20％ and the average intensity errors of maximum wind speed could be reduced by 4％ ～16％.
Keywords：GRAPES_TYMSASvortex initializationtyphoon intensitytyphoon track
Publication Date：2017-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：10( 64-73 )