SIMULATION AND PROJECTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTH ASIAN RIVER BASIN BY CMIP5 MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLES
ZHANG Fei-yue
JIANG Tong
SU Bu-da
HUANG Jin-long
ZHU Xian-yun
Abstract：Based on monthly temperature and precipitation grid datasets from CRU (Climatic Research Unit), APHRODITE (Asian Precipitation -Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation)and CMIP5 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5)models,the simulation ability of CMIP5 models in the South Asian River Basin is evaluated for the period 1961-2005.The projected changes of the climate change under RCP2.6、4.5 和 8.5 scenarios are analyzed in the South Asian River Basin during 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2081-2100 subsequently.The results show that the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble can capture the temporal variation and the spatial distribution characteristics of annual mean temperature quite satisfactory, with spatial correlation between the CMIP5 and CRU data have reached the significant level of 0.01,and sum-mer temperature simulation results are obviously better than other months.On the other hand,CMIP5 ensembles can also reproduce annual precipitation and seasonal variation of precipitation well.Based on the results,it was projected that the annual averaged temperature over the whole basin will increase under RCP2.6,4.5,8.5 sce-narios during 2016-2035,2046-2065 and 2081-2100 relative to the 1986—2005,with the largest increas-ing scope in the upstream area.Annual precipitation will also increase at the same time with the exception of weak decreasing trend during early-21st century under RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios.The persistent rising of sum-mer temperature might accelerates melting of glaciers,and impacts the local freshwater availability.The contri-bution of spring precipitation to the water resources in middle and high altitude area will be enhanced.Winter precipitation in northern high altitude area will contribute to glacier accumulation and the increase of water re-sources,while the slight rising of winter precipitation in eastern high altitude area will increase the water re-sources.Summer precipitation almost increases over the whole Basin during 2016-2035,2046-2065 and 2081-2100.It will increase the risk of the flood disaster.And it was projected warm events and heavy rainfall events may increase in South Asian River Basin as well.
Keywords：climate changemulti-models ensembleRCP scenarioSouth Asian River Basin
Publication Date：2016-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：9( 734-742 )