PROGNOSTICATION AND INVESTIGATION OF EL NINO EVENT PROBABILITY
LI Ke
LIU Yao-wu
YANG Wen-feng
XU Xiao-hong
ZHENG Xiao-hua
Abstract：Based on the El Nino event data sequence from 1854 to 1993,the sequence property was determined by using statistical normal and independent test, etc. By using Markov random process and first order auto-regression, we set up the prognostication mode and give the time limit of the occurrence of next El Nino event, which probably occurs around 2002.The occurring probability in 2001 is 44 %,and it is 61 % in 2002.
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Publication Date：2001-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：10( 125-134 )