Research on the Fluctuation Characteristics and Seasonal Patterns of China's Squab Export Trade
ZENG Ying-fang
LIU Yan-qing
WENG Jie
LUO Xing-xie
Abstract：This study systematically analyzes the fluctuation characteristics and seasonal patterns of China's squab export trade,based on monthly export data from China Customs spanning from January 2015 to November 2025.The findings are as follows:(1)The export scale shows a stepwise growth pattern,peaking in 2023 followed by a correction,with the growth rate significantly slowing down.(2)The commodity structure has undergone a fundamental transformation;live pigeon exports have dropped to zero,while the proportion of frozen squab meat has risen to100%,driving a continuous increase in the average export price to Hong Kong.(3)Market concentration is extremely high.The Hong Kong market has long held an 80%-85%share,the Macau market has shown sustained and rapid growth,and Fujian province resumed its supply to Hong Kong in 2025.(4)Seasonal characteristics are distinct.December exports on average account for over 15%of the annual total,forming a significant year-end pulse.Model testing confirms the stability of this seasonal pattern,which has remained unchanged for a decade.
Keywords：Squab exportSeasonalityX-13-ARIMA-SEATS modelStructural breakpointMarket concentration
Publication Date：2025-12-25
Online Publishing Date：2026-02-02(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：4( 27-30 )