Analysis of Urban Pattern Evolution and Simulation of Multi-scenario Spatial and Temporal Extrapolation:A Case Study of Guangzhou's 2049 Strategic Planning
XU Yunfei
LI Yazhou
CHEN Xi
LIU Guochao
Abstract：Urban space is the foundation and carrier of urban production functions,residential functions,and ecological functions.The evolution of urban spatial patterns signifies the developmental trajectories of diverse urban functions over time,which are influenced by numerous factors,including natural geography,industrial development,land use,and population migration.The relative influence of these elements varies across different stages of development.In the contemporary epoch,urban space aims to achieve the overall spatial planning of mountains,water,forests,fields,lakes,and grass by integrating the entire region and all its elements rather than being limited to urban land layout and land use layout.It also comprehensively considers factors such as"people,land,housing,industry,and real estate".It requires a more precise theoretical framework and technical system to assess the evolutionary direction of urban development patterns over extended periods.
A case study revealed the evolution of urban spatial patterns in Guangzhou across different developmental stages and the driving forces for forming the local spatial structure.Through various types of survey data and analysis of correlations of different factors,it was concluded that the evolution of the spatial pattern in the past was predominantly influenced by factors such as land investment,population growth,and industrial pattern.In the new period orienting towards the long-term development target for 2049,Guangzhou's urban spatial pattern will be more obviously influenced by factors including the regional synergy of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,the development pattern of land stock,the spatial networkization of the whole area,and the enhancement of the central urban area's functions.
From the perspective of these three factors,the spatial pattern evolution in Guangzhou in the medium and long term was summarized into three scenarios according to local"people,land,real estate,industry and realm".From the viewpoint of regional synergy,analysis of the employment population,industrial links and other data found that Guangzhou is currently characterized by close cooperation with Foshan,but the regional advantages are challenged by marginalization.In the context of the"Golden Inner Bay"strategy,Guangzhou will form an inner bay metropolitan cluster with Shenzhen according to the regional development trend to promote integrating the Bay Area.Moreover,a spatial pattern of"double cores and double bays"will be formed in Guangzhou to lead the regional development.From the perspective of multi-center development,Guangzhou must strengthen its role as a central hub in terms of public services:employment,business,and peripheral centers will be further improved professionally.In the future,Guangzhou will have a central vitality zone and six new urban zones,with balanced jobs and housing demands and integrated industry and residential activities built in the periphery.From the perspective of seeking high-value areas,resource allocation in Guangzhou was fragmented in the past;however,future resource allocation will comprehensively consider the values of industry and innovation,vitality,connectivity,and ecology.Preference will be given to the development of financial centers,headquarters clusters,and innovation,industrial,and vitality value areas.
The comprehensive city-region spatial structure plans under different scenarios have been shown to strengthen the strategic plate carrying the core functions of a central world city.In addition,the advanced planning for the uncertainty of future development is highlighted,and a spatial strategy of urban areas characteristic of"two oceans expanding to the south,the two rivers advancing to the east,the old city upgrading,and pole demonstration"is optimized according to the previous strategic"cross guideline".
Keywords：urban spatial layoutmulti-scenario projectionssimulation and scenario analysisGuangzhou
Publication Date：2025-03-31
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：12( 1-12 )