Establishment and application of hypothermia risk prediction model for patients undergoing perioperative thoracoscopic surgery
DING Lingya
MEI Fenglin
Abstract：Objective To explore the independent influencing factors of hypothermia in patients undergoing thoracoscopic surgery during the perioperative period,establish a predictive model,and verify the predictive effect.Methods A total of 214 patients,older than 18 years old,ASA I-Ⅲ,who underwent thoracoscopic surgery in Changzhou No.2 People's hospital Affiliated to Nanjing Medical University from January 2020 to June 2024 were selected for retrospective analysis.In this study,single factor and multivariate analyses were conducted on patients who underwent thoracoscopy surgery during the perioperative period to investigate the occurrence of hypothermia.In addition,a predictive model for the occurrence of hypothermia was constructed and its predictive performance was evaluated.Results During the perioperative period,a total of 51 patients undergoing thoracoscopic surgery experienced hypothermia,accounting for 23.83％of all the patients.Through univariate analysis,we found that there were statistically significant differences in the occurrence of hypothermia among factors such as patient age,BMI,anesthesia type,preoperative preparation time,and anesthesia duration(P＜0.05).Further logistic multiple regression analysis was conducted to determine the above factors as independent risk factors for hypothermia in patients undergoing thoracoscopic surgery during the perioperative period(P＜0.05).The C-index value of the constructed column chart model was 0.781,and the average absolute error of the calibration curve was 0.027.The independent risk factors and their P-values obtained through regression model analysis were used to predict the occurrence of hypothermia in perioperative thoracoscopic surgery patients.In the ROC curve,the Yoden indices were 41.49％,36.48％,33.44％,48.63％,44.15％,and 77.00％,respectively.Conclusion The occurrence of hypothermia in patients undergoing thoracoscopic surgery during the perioperative period is closely related to factors such as age.Moreover,prediction models based on these risk factors can accurately predict the occurrence of hypothermia,which helps to take preventive measures in advance.
Keywords：thoracoscopylow body temperaturepredictive modelageanaesthesia
Publication Date：2024-12-15
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 331-335 )