Analysis of the predictive performance of serum sCD40L,IL-17,and NETs in combination for intracranial aneurysm rupture

WANG Dong; WANG Haixia; QIAO Fei; ZHANG Rui; ZHANG Jie

doi:10.13431/j.cnki.immunol.j.20250093

Abstract：Objective To investigate the predictive performance of serum soluble CD40 ligand(sCD40L),interleukin-17(IL-17)and neutrophil extracellular traps(NETs)in combination for intracranial aneurysm rupture.Methods A total of 120 patients with intracranial aneurysms admitted from January 2022 to January 2025 were selected and divided into low-risk group and medium-high-risk group according to different rupture risks.After propensity score matching with 1:1 ratio and caliper matching(caliper=0.02),there were 60 patients in each group.The general data and serum levels of sCD40 L,IL-17 and NETs were compared between the two groups.Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the risk factors of intracranial aneurysm rupture.The linear relationship between serum sCD40 L,IL-17,NETs and the risk of intracranial aneurysm rupture was analyzed by smoothing curve fitting.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,clinical impact curve(CIC)and clinical decision curve analysis(DCA)were used to evaluate the predictive performance of serum sCD40L,IL-17 and NETs for intracranial aneurysm rupture.Results The irregular shape of aneurysms,the proportion of the longest diameter of aneurysms≥7 mm and the levels of serum sCD40L,IL-17 and NETs in the low-risk group were lower than those in the medium-high-risk group(P<0.01).The shape of aneurysm,the longest diameter of aneurysm,sCD40L,IL-17 and NETs were the independent risk factors for intracranial aneurysm rupture(P<0.05).After adjusting for other covariates,serum sCD40L,IL-17 and NETs were positively correlated with the risk of intracranial aneurysm rupture(P<0.05).The ROC curve showed that the area under the curve of serum sCD40L,IL-17 and NETs in combination for predicting the risk of intracranial aneurysm rupture was the largest.The DCA and CIC showed that both the net benefit of the combined prediction model of serum sCD40L,IL-17 and NETs in predicting the risk of intracranial aneurysm rupture and the coincidence rate with the actual situation were relatively high.Conclusion The elevated levels of serum sCD40L,IL-17,and NETs in patients with intracranial aneurysms are associated with their rupture risk.The combination of the three indicators has a high predictive performance for the risk of intracranial aneurysm rupture.